Onward Into 2025

Aaron Hilger

Coming off a wonderful SMACNA Annual Convention, there is a lot of energy around the SMACNA office. We had our largest convention outside of Hawaii and fun new programming Monday evening with a great Beatles tribute band. Along with strong educational sessions, engaging general sessions and fun events like golf and pickleball tournaments, we also set a record for PAC fundraising. Thank you all for attending, participating and being so engaged with SMACNA. I’m already looking forward to being in Maui in 2025.

By the time this is printed, millions of words will have been written about the 2024 elections. As we have come to expect, about 40% of voters did not vote. The rest of us voted, and on Wednesday morning, Americans reacted with a wide range of emotions. Some were jubilant and celebrating, while others were experiencing horror and fear. It might be wonderful if we stopped watching MSNBC and Fox for a little while and let the dust shake out. Regardless of the outcome, the checks and balances in our system are strong and resilient, and extremes from either side rarely last long. I was unsurprised by Trump’s victory because I had called Pennsylvania for him, which created an easier path in the electoral college. I expected Michigan (EVs hurting auto employment) and Arizona (border issues) to go for him as well. I did not expect the popular vote result, nor did I see Republicans holding the House. The Senate came in one short than I predicted. Perhaps the overall takeaway is that candidates matter, and no amount of spending can overcome the issues created by a weak candidate. It may also be true that stronger candidates emerge from contested primaries. 

The best predictor of President-Elects Trump’s actions likely comes from his prior term in office. At times, he was unpresidential and behaved inconsistently with the gravity of his office. At others, he showed solid instincts and performed better than expected. A COVID vaccine was developed during his first term, the economy was strong (until the COVID shock), and the first round of PPP was passed. He supported tariffs but backed off on some that would have devastated the economy. He took strong positions on the world stage, which mostly worked out, even if he shocked the diplomatic corps with his unrestrained language.

As a trade association, our job is to represent our members, regardless of who holds power. We build strong relationships with both sides of the aisle and seek to do our best to protect our members' interests. Yes, I am concerned that some of the wins we helped deliver will be threatened next year. PLAs, apprenticeship regulations and Davis Bacon regulations come to mind. Others, like the support for reshoring manufacturing, will be OK. Of course, we may see a decline in support for projects related to EVs and batteries, which are already showing some weakness due to the economics of the industry. Balance that with continued backing for pharmaceutical, food and beverage, microchips, and general manufacturing. I also expect continued support for nuclear project development. The pipeline projects will restart for contractors who engage in energy work, and fracking will grow substantially. We may also see other industries thrive as regulatory burdens are reduced and mergers are easier to complete. We may also find that regulations we did not like, such as a new OSHA heat standard, are not supported, which would be a great win.

If taken too far or done too broadly, tariffs will hurt the economy and our work. We will work hard to limit the effects on our industry. Similarly, America needs a functioning immigration system. We need legal residents who can work in construction and are willing to take manufacturing jobs. Neither party has done what is needed to have a functioning immigration system. An open border with uncontrolled mass migration does not produce a legal workforce and creates national security concerns. A mass deportation may solve some national security concerns, but it does nothing to build a workforce. This is an area where we need to demand more from our leaders. If we want to grow, we must have people who are willing to come to America and work. 

With the transition of power happening in January, we look forward to staying focused on our mission.   

Aaron Hilger is SMACNA CEO. He brings more than two decades of executive association leadership to this role. Hilger is focused on building a stronger, more competitive environment for all SMACNA contractors.